The Brownlow Lowdown 2019
Welcome back to The Brownlow Lowdown, the first week of pre-season has been completed and round 1 is getting closer and closer! This week I thought I would look at my data for 2019 compared to what happened on Brownlow night. Be sure to get the latest Brownlow odds for 2020 at Play Up (sign up here).
Every year I try to adjust my voting, in 2019 I relied heavily on leaning towards the stars and proven vote getters as a bit of an experiment. My results reflect that and in 2020 I will try to dial that back and not always lean towards the star name when trying to divvy out votes. Let’s get started with team votes. My votes are on the left and the official results are on the right, and I‘ve only used the top 3 for each team.
Same order, but my counts are higher which match my leaning towards the star names. I would suggest these 3 will be amongst the leaders again for the Crows in 2020, I’ll be watching Sloane to see if he looks to have a bounce back season.
Pretty close here, top 3 and the numbers aren’t too far off. Neale should lead the Lions brigade again in 2020.
Two years in a row I’ve underestimated Mr Cripps. Back to back top 5 finishes in a bottom 4 side, lookout if the Blues can vastly improve in 2020. Cripps is on the watch list.
Again pretty close, and I usually reward mids more than ruckmen due to the ruck department having a poor polling history. Grundy could be the one the puts the ruck position back on the Brownlow map.
Not much to see here, I heavily favoured Merrett in 2019, he didn’t have the best year, but also didn’t have anyone else stepping up so I awarded him the majority of the votes. He should do ok again this year esepcailly if he gets a bit more help.
Fyfe is a guy a favour a lot when allocating votes, yet he still got more votes that I had awarded him in the count proper. This is one of the reasons why he’ll always be a chance for the Brownlow if he can put together a full season, he’s favoured in a low ranking young side with only 1 or 2 other players regularly polling at Freo.
Bang on with the top 2, Kelly started like a house on fire, but Dangerfield came home strong. It will be interesting to see how Dangerfield’s mid/forward split works with Kelly now gone.
Gold Coast games are either easy to poll when they lose, or impossibly hard to predict when they’ve managed to get a win. It’s a tossup for 2020, I think a new face will lead the Suns in polling either Greenwood or maybe a rookie in Rowell will be top vote getter…who knows.
GWS is almost as hard to predict as Gold Coast, but for the complete opposite reason, they are so stacked with talent there are several players that could legitimately lead the vote getters for the Giants. My pick is Josh Kelly to have a better run with injuries and poll the most for GWS.
On par give or take a vote here and there, but there’s a name missing… Could Tom Mitchell do the impossible, win a Brownlow, miss the next season with a broken leg and then win another Brownlow?
The Demons had a very average year in 2019 considering they were a premiership chance in 2018. Oliver and the Demons to have a bit of a bounce back year in 2020 I think.
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Probably the team I hate the most when awarding votes, no one at the Roos is ever miles above anyone else in the side. I have no faith in predicting anyone to be the lead vote getter here.
Port Adelaide Power
My votes aren’t too dissimilar to the official ones, I’m pretty happy with having the same top 3, even if they are in a different order. Boak really stepped up in 2019 and I see that continuing in 2020.
I got Dusty down to a tee, but gave too much credit to Prestia. Premiers and minor premiers in 2019, but apart from Dusty the rest of the side share the votes around with everybody contributing in a team approach I’m sure the rest of the league are envious of. With 10 or so games at the MCG in the first half of the season, the Tigers should be polling well again this year.
St Kilda Saints
Another tough team to award votes to in 2019, with the coaching change I think we’ll see some improvement from the Saints and I’ll be leaning towards Ross to lead their count.
A very average year for the Swans by their past standards, however with Kennedy, Parker, Heeney and Lloyd they still have a lot of polling power. I think Heeney steps up this year to the Swans votes.
West Coast Eagles
Correct order, wrong numbers, that’s a win in my book with a midfield such as that of the Eagles. The addition of Tim Kelly only makes it that much more difficult! I’ll back Yeo to improve with more help in the middle.
Not far off and I would think these 3 would be the same top 3 in 2020, only question is who will be on top? After the 1stround or preseason Bontempelli looks to be in for a huge year, however I will still back Macrae to lead the pack.
Finally the top 20…
I had Fyfe the winner tied with Dangerfield and Neale. I had 4/5 players correct in the top 5, 7/10 in the top 10 and 18/20 in the top 20.
The Brownlow is a tough game to get right, but I’ll have another crack in 2020 and hope you can join me by following my blogs and regular vote updates. Also follow me on Twitter where you can ask questions and have a general chat about all things Brownlow. Be sure to get the latest Brownlow odds for 2020 at Play Up (sign up here).