Round 9 Bonus Blog
I thought I’d drop a bonus blog today taking a look at the top 10 list in the bookies eyes along with my thoughts on them. Odds used from PlayUp, there will be discrepancies across bookies so look out for that value.
Christian Petracca $4.50 - Petracca showed last year that he has some polling power finishing 3rd in the 2020 count. I feel he stood out more last year and $4.50 is way too short for what looks like a very close count at this stage in 2021. I’d rather back his contested beast partner in Clayton Oliver at $17.
Marcus Bontempelli $4.50 - Current equal favourite. Always is right up there in the betting odds, but falls short by a fair margin each year as well. When he’s best on ground you know it, but also if he’s not best on ground he doesn’t always poll. Like Oliver, I’d rather take his counterpart in Jack Macrae at $10 who seems to poll even when he’s not best on ground just to his pure accumulation numbers.
Dustin Martin $5 - I didn’t check all player odds prior to round 9, so I’m not sure if he’s jumped up to 3rd spot due to having a big game on the weekend. Way too short for me, but has won it and does poll well in a team where he is easily the standout player.
Jack Macrae $10 - Macrae is always a dark horse for me and I’ll always jump on him when he’s value. Got on at $23.
Travis Boak $10 - Way too short in my opinion, polls well and finished equal 3rd with Petracca and Steele last season so always a chance, but not at those odds. I’d rather take Wines at $15 for the value.
Hugh McCluggage $13 - Hugh has been very good, but I’ll call it now and say he’s the player this year who is expected to poll well, but will poll poorly. Too much of an outside player for mine, and would rather take Lyons at $61.
Sam Walsh $13 - This kid is a gun and has replaced Cripps as the Blues best midfielder in only his 3rd year. I’m high on him and jumped on at $34 and $21, like Cripps in previous years, I feel he has the ability to poll in losing games, but unlikely for the win if the Blues can’t get a few W’s on the board.
Nat Fyfe $15 - Not sure what he’s doing here to be honest, Brayshaw and Mundy have both been better so far this season, if Fyfe had been kicking goals then he’d be a much better chance, but he’s been incredibly inaccurate all season. Don’t listen to the Mundy talk either, he’s not going to win.
Ollie Wines $15 - Wines is in the mix, he’s had interrupted season’s up until now and if he can stay healthy and be back to his best (which it looks like) then he’s certainly a chance. Hard to know with not much polling history due to those injury plagued seasons.
Clayton Oliver/Cam Guthrie/Max Gawn $17 - This trio rounds out the top 10. My thoughts on Oliver remain the same, get on. I’m on Oliver at $41 and $26, but $17 is still way overs for the player dominating the contested possessions leaderboard. Guthrie at $17 is great odds and worth a dabble, he’s not competing with Dangerfield, Selwood is past his prime and Duncan is more of an outside player. The forwards will be the ones to steal votes when they kick bags. Gawn is always in the mix, but being a ruckman takes him out of consideration purely based on history.
Value - Lyons at $61 is fantastic value, I got on at $101 before the round started. Andrew Gaff at $41. Apart from him taking a few weeks to get used to the new rules, him and Tim Kelly ($21) have been great, picking up the slack for a missing Shuey and Yeo. I like Gaff over Kelly just because Gaff has the ability to rack up away from home and in losses whereas Kelly is less noticeable when the Eagles are losing. Hope you enjoyed the bonus blog, I’ll do another one of these top 10’s after the bye rounds.