• The Brownlow Lowdown

Brownlow Bets #1

Wow, a weekend without footy!  I was able to get out on the grill and have my first attempt at smoked octopus and fish wings, improvements to be made, but tasty nonetheless.  A whole day out in the garden too!  To be fair I was watching the NBA finals so it was far from a sport free weekend! Win or lose I like to put my money where my mouth is so this will be the first in a series of where I’ve put my money into making a few dollars (and the off chance of hitting big).  The bookies have been a bit tame in releasing markets at the moment with the usual group fields, trifecta, quinella etc not making an appearance yet.  At this stage all you can bet on is outright winner, outright without Neale, top 3, top 5, top 10 and team votes.  Team votes can be multi’d with certain bookies with it eventually opening up across more bookies closer to vote night. Without further ado here are my first lot of bets.  Note, bets will be made in unites, ie 1U, 2.5U etc. Top 5 – Patrick Dangerfield @ $5 (1.5U) I don’t think this is 100% locked, but that value is too good to refuse considering Dagner’s polling power.  I do have him top 5 by my count so I’m happy to go with that.  I also think Jack Macrae is value for top 5 at the same price, but Danger has a better chance so I’ll pass on the Macrae market. Most Collingwood team votes – Grundy @ $15 (1U) I know, I know, “it’s a midfielders award” I hear you say and I agree, but hear me out.  Grundy had an amazing year last year finishing 6th in the Bronwlow 10 votes behind Fyfe.  This year he hasn’t been as good, but I don’t feel anyone else at Collingwood has been a standout either.  Add the fact that a year after he was one of the favourites for the medal he will certainly get noticed a bit more.  Happy to take that as a value bet and mix and match it in some multi’s. Most North Melbourne team votes – Simpkin @ $10 (1U) North are always one of the hardest teams to pick a vote leader from, this year is no exception and without much confidence I will back my predictions and have a small punt on the generous odds. The rest of these bets revolve around team multi’s to hopefully jag a few here and there, I will just list the players in each multi and you should be able to figure out who they are.  Port, Brisbane and Richmond team bets will be without Boak, Neale and Dusty.  Be aware, it’s generally super difficult to hit one of these multi’s and I’ve been so close to the “big one” over the last decade, so don’t go all out with these. Team Multi’s With this first lot, I’m trying a base multi with some added value by adding a roughie in the team.  I may have overdone it with Walsh as a 2nd year player and knowing Cripps always seems to overpoll, so this lot might bite me hard.  As you can see with 0.1U bets I haven’t gone very hard on these and Bont was a mistake, should’ve been Macrae, this bookie was the only one that had Bont as the favourite for Bulldogs and I just clicked it thinking it was Macrae.  Pay attention kids!

Walsh/Fyfe/Danger/Mitchell/Greene/Simpkin/Sheed @ $733 (0.1U) Walsh/Grundy/Fyfe/Danger/Mitchell/Greene/Simpkin/Bont @ $3500 (0.1U) Walsh/Grundy/Fyfe/Mitchell/Greene/Simpkin @ $2000 (0.1) Walsh/Grundy/Fyfe/Danger/Mitchell/Greene/Sheed @ $1100 (0.1U) Walsh/Grundy/Fyfe/Danger/Mitchell/Simpkin/Sheed @ $3437 (0.1U) This next lot uses a base I feel very safe with whilst adding some value plays in. 

Merrett/Fyfe/Danger/Mitchell/Cotchin @ $10 (1U) Merrett/Fyfe/Danger/Mitchell/Lloyd @ $15 (1U) Merrett/Fyfe/Danger/Mitchell/Simpkin @ $27 (1U) Merrett/Fyfe/Danger/Mitchell/Greene @ $11.50 (0.5U) Merrett/Fyfe/Danger/Mitchell/Grundy @ $34 (0.5U) Merrett/Fyfe/Danger/Mitchell/Cotchin/Lloyd/Greene/Rockliff/Macrae/Lyons @ $1900 (0.25U) Merrett/Fyfe/Danger/Mitchell/Cotchin/Lloyd/Greene/Rockliff/Grundy @ $7740 (0.5U) Merrett/Fyfe/Danger/Mitchell/Cotchin/Lloyd/Greene/Rockliff @ $703 (0.5U) This last lot are miscellaneous team multi’s.

Grundy/Greene/Mitchell/Fyfe/Danger/Macrae @ $265 (0.5U) Rockliff/Lloyd/Grundy @ $206 (0.25U) Rockliff.Lloyd/Greene @ $71 (0.5U) Well that’s my first lot of bets for the Brownlow until new markets are announced.  You may think surely I’ll hit something here, but I know better after all the years of doing this.  I do feel I’ve made smarter choices this year instead of just going wild, but it’s still a good idea to only go small in these types of multis.  Good luck if you follow, or construct your own team multis!

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